【歐洲加息】歐央行加息0.25厘超預期　拉加德指不能說利率已達到頂峰　歐元回軟，兌港元8.35算

歐央行公布9月議息結果，三大主要利率加息0.25厘，超市場預期，即歐洲央行主要再融資利率升至4.5%，創2001年7月以來新高，存款便利利率升至4%，更為歷史新高，邊際貸款利率則上調至4.75%。議息結果出爐後，歐元兌美元跌0.3%，現報1.0665，兌港元8.35算。

央行又預計歐元區經濟放緩程度會較早前預期更大，今年全年GDP按年增長為0.7%，6月預測為0.9%；明年則按年升1%，較6月預測1.5%大幅下調0.5個百分點；到2025年，GDP按年升1.5%，同樣較6月預期低0.1個百分點。

The rate increase today reflects the Governing Council’s assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data， the dynamics of underlying inflation， and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The September ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area see average inflation at 5.6% in 2023， 3.2% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. This is an upward revision for 2023 and 2024 and a downward revision for 2025. The upward revision for 2023 and 2024 mainly reflects a higher path for energy prices. Underlying price pressures remain high， even though most indicators have started to ease. ECB staff have slightly revised down the projected path for inflation excluding energy and food， to an average of 5.1% in 2023， 2.9% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. The Governing Council’s past interest rate increases continue to be transmitted forcefully. Financing conditions have tightened further and are increasingly dampening demand， which is an important factor in bringing inflation back to target. With the increasing impact of this tightening on domestic demand and the weakening international trade environment， ECB staff have lowered their economic growth projections significantly. They now expect the euro area economy to expand by 0.7% in 2023， 1.0% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025.

The Governing Council decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. Accordingly， the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be increased to 4.50%， 4.75% and 4.00% respectively， with effect from 20 September 2023.